There are two types of surfers in the world.
Those who rely on other people to tell them when to paddle out and those who prefer to make their own decisions.
Surf forecasts, also called surf reports or swell reports, are the closest thing we have to a crystal ball. Unlike sports such as football, hockey or basketball where the conditions don't really influence the activity, surfing revolves around Mother Nature.
From beginners to advanced surfers, intermediates and pros, every surfer must know how to decode a surf forecast.
But what exactly is a surf forecast? What metrics are important for beginners? How can you use surf forecasts to beat the crowds and find the best waves for your skill level?
Fortunately, it's easier than ever to read surf forecasts.
And while your surf journey might only be starting off, this article will ensure your surf forecasting skills are expert-level.
A surf forecast is a prediction of wave conditions over a specific period of time.
It takes into account various factors such as swell height, direction, period, wind speed and tide to provide information on how the waves will behave at specific surf spots.
Once upon a time, surf reports were pulled from weather charts and eyeball reports from sailors and fishermen.
These days you can search for specific beginner beaches and surf breaks in Indonesia to get an accurate forecast of what to expect before you paddle out.
Simply put, being able to read a surf report allows you to progress faster.
You can use the information to choose appropriate surf spots for your skill level, saving you time and effort in finding good waves.
Learning how to read a surf report also helps you understand what conditions are best suited for certain breaks, giving you an edge over other surfers.
When you can finally decode a surf report, you can essentially beat the crowds and have more fun in the water. And on a more important note, understanding surf forecasts also keeps you safe.
Bali's dry season offers good waves from April to October, but come the rainy season when conditions become harder to decipher, reading a surf report can be the difference between fun waves and terrible sessions.
Below is a screenshot of a surf forecasting site (we'll dive into the different sites below).
As you can see, there's a wealth of information to take in, but not all of it is important for beginners. For example, you needn't know about secondary swells, wind gusts or barometric pressure (just yet).
All you need to know are the basics to ensure you score more good sessions and minimize the bad ones.
Here are the different elements that shape the surf conditions.
Tide is the rise and fall of sea levels caused by the gravitational pull of the moon.
In surfing, tides can drastically affect wave quality and shape.
Low tide is when the water is at its lowest point, exposing more rocks and reefs. Mid tide is when the water level is average and usually offers a more consistent wave. High tide is when the water level is at its highest point.
Different surf breaks require different tides.
Ask around or read spot guides to see what tide is best for your local break.
You can then pair that with the surf forecast to plan your session.
Swell is what we call ocean waves created by weather systems thousands of miles away.
It's only once they reach the coast that they become actual surfable waves.
Swell height refers to the distance between the crest (top) and trough (bottom) of a wave.
It's usually measured in feet (ft) or metres (m) but you can generally change the unit of measurement in surf forecasting sites.
The smaller the swell height, the smaller the waves will be. Likewise, the bigger the swell height, the bigger the waves.
For beginners, the sweet spot for swell height is 1-3ft (0.3-1m).
Swell direction is the angle from which the swell is approaching the coastline.
It's important to know this because certain surf spots work best with specific swell directions. For example, the Bukit Peninsula where we're based loves swell from the southwest, whereas Keramas (another popular spot in Bali) loves swell from the southeast.
Again, different surf breaks favour different swell directions so make sure you know which direction your local break prefers.
Alongside tide and swell, wind (wind speed and wind direction) are the third crucial element in determining surf conditions.
Wind is measured in knots (kt) or kilometres per hour (km/h) and can have a huge impact on the quality of waves.
Offshore wind (blowing from the land out to sea) generally creates cleaner and more organized waves, whereas onshore wind (blowing from the sea onto land) can make for messy and choppy waves.
Offshore or no wind is preferable, but savvy beginners shouldn't fear light onshore winds too.
In fact, a light onshore wind is preferable to a gusty or strong offshore wind as howling offshore winds can make taking off on waves very difficult.
We deliberated about adding swell period into this article for beginners.
In the end, we included it because we think it's important to at least know what it means and how it affects surf conditions.
Swell or wave period is the time between each wave crest passing through a certain point.
In short, a longer swell period generally results in bigger, more powerful waves. And vice versa, shorter swell periods generally result in weaker waves.
Swell period is measured in seconds, with a period of 11 seconds or more indicating powerful waves and a period of 10 seconds or less indicating weaker waves.
There are many nuances to period and how it affects waves, but for now just keep in mind that a higher (or longer) period usually means bigger, cleaner and more uniformed waves.
Unless you can see the waves from where you're staying (or you're lodging with Kala Surf), there's no way to know the conditions unless you check a surf forecast.
A surf forecast gives you a detailed overview of what to expect in terms of wave quality.
Will it be smooth and waist-high or small and slow? Can you surf on a foamie or longboard or is it more suited for shortboards? What time will the conditions be best and which is the best break within that window?
Surf forecasts allow you to plan your sessions in advance, ensuring you get the most out of your surf trip or local sessions.
They also help you make better decisions when traveling to new surf spots and choosing which breaks to surf on any given day.
While the science of surf forecasting is relatively accurate, there's a dirty secret in the surf forecasting industry – not all websites are created equal.
It's true that most surf report websites pull meteorological data and predictions from the same sources, but not all of them present it in a user-friendly manner.
Our surf coaches and owners have travelled the world, surfing in Australia, Indonesia, Europe and the Americas.
In that time we've noticed that different surf forecast websites are more reliable in different regions.
That said, the following surf forecasting websites are generally reliable and can be trusted for accurate swell, tide and wind predictions.
We've ranked them from user-friendly to more technical.
Yes! The floor or bottom of the point break, beach break or reef break affects how a wave forms and breaks.
For example, shallow water on a steep shore will produce faster breaking waves whereas deeper water on a gently sloping sandbar will result in slower waves.
No, key factors like wave size, primary swell, swell size and direction, wind direction and period all contribute to how a wave breaks.
The type of break (beach, point, reef) also plays a role in how a wave breaks.
Wind swell is local wind-generated waves, meaning they occur as a result of strong winds blowing over a relatively short distance.
Ground swell is created by storms and weather systems thousands of miles away, resulting in longer wavelengths and more powerful waves.
Wind swell is generally weaker and shorter-lived compared to ground swell.
While experienced surfers or even confident intermediate surfers may want to know everything about surf forecasts, it's not essential for beginners.
As a beginner, you can stick to the basics: swell height, period, swell direction, wind speed, wind direction and tides.
This information will give you a good idea of what to expect in terms of wave quality and help you choose the right board.
When it's glassy you can expect waves that are smooth and clean, with little to no ripple on the surface.
In contrast, choppy waves are affected by an onshore or cross-shore wind. Choppier waves will be messier and more bumpy to surf.
Surfers prefer offshore winds for quality waves but can still make the most of their session in light onshore winds.
Weather reports, meteorological data, surf cameras, swell buoys and even local surfers all contribute to the information on a surf report or forecast.
From these sources we can almost perfectly identify wave height, average wave size on any given day and even wave shape at your local beach or break.
A broken wave is a wave that has already crested and broken, creating whitewater or foam as it rolls towards the shore.
An unbroken wave is one that has not yet reached the point of breaking and is still smooth and clean on the surface, providing an opportunity for surfers to catch it and ride.
Learning how to read surf and weather conditions for a specific break is an art that takes time and experience.
But with the help of this guide, you can read surf reports like more experienced surfers and plan your sessions accordingly.
